Coronavirus (COVID

The European CDC discusses the criteria for what constitutes a probable case, and a ‘close contact’ here.

See any Situation Report by the WHO – for example Situation Report 50.

The WHO also speaks of ‘suspected cases’ and ‘probable cases’, but the WHO Situation Reports do not provide figures on ‘probable cases’, and only report ‘suspected cases’ for Chinese provinces (‘suspected cases’ by country is not available).

In Situation Report 50 they define these as follows:Suspect caseA. A patient with acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease (e.g., cough, shortness of breath), AND with no other etiology that fully explains the clinical presentation AND a history of travel to or residence in a country/area or territory reporting local transmission (See situation report) of COVID-19 disease during the 14 days prior to symptom onset.ORB. A patient with any acute respiratory illness AND having been in contact with a confirmed or probable COVID19 case (see definition of contact) in the last 14 days prior to onset of symptoms;ORC. A patient with severe acute respiratory infection (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease (e.g., cough, shortness breath) AND requiring hospitalization AND with no other etiology that fully explains the clinical presentation.

Probable caseA suspect case for whom testing for COVID-19 is inconclusive. Inconclusive being the result of the test reported by the laboratory.

The US, for example, uses the following definitions: “A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19.”